U.S. Recession Model Confirms Economic Downturn Already Arrived

U.S. Recession Model Confirms Economic Downturn Already Arrived

Economists and regular people alike have been not so impatiently waiting for this week’s economic news. One month ago the economy was being touted as the strongest it has ever been in history. Yet only one month later signals are building that the economy is anything but that. Some of these data are on a level that has not been seen in this country for nearly 100 years with the last time being during the original Great Depression.

Disturbing signs amongst the new economic indicators

So what exactly are these new signals and how do they reveal the state of the economy in the United States. There is a growing opinion that just using stock prices is an inappropriate way to measure the overall health of the economy as a whole. Here are the indicators that economists have been most interested in this week.

Unemployment rates climbing higher the estimated

Each week for the past four weeks in a row we have seen in excess of 5 million new jobless claims. These are just the initial claims too. That means that in total 22 million people registered for unemployment for their first time in the month of March. This is unbelievable and will have debilitating effects on the economy long term.

The drop in homebuilding greater than anticipated

One of the lesser-known ways that economists like to measure the health of an economy is to look at how many houses are being built and how many are being ordered. Right now there has been a sharp decline in the number of new homes being built. This is often a signal that a recession is just around the corner.

Economic Coefficient Index indicates terrible times ahead

The coefficient index is a measurement of the economy that is put together by a group of economists that are referred to as The Conference Board. This signal is made to measure current economic conditions in the country by analyzing multiple aspects of the economy and distilling the data into one easy to understand quantity. This has also been showing steady negative growth at a fast rate.

What Does This Indicate for the Foreseeable Future?

Most economists will tell you that it is not worth the time to try and anticipate the future. If anything the past few weeks should tell you that things can change dramatically rapidly. For now, the best thing you can do is concentrate on the present moment but the more numbers that are coming in the more that it looks like we are getting into into a severe recession.

See more information at Bloomberg


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